Growing Tomorrow: Why Bold Agricultural Research Matters Now
- AgInnovation
- Jan 27
- 2 min read
The science that shapes our food system is decades in the making. With climate pressures accelerating, now is the moment to fuel the next generation of innovations that will support farmers and secure our nation's food future.
By Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, Robert G. Chambers, Yurou He, and David B. Lobell — summarized for agInnovation
The future of U.S. agriculture is facing a challenge unlike anything in recent memory. A new study published in PNAS sends a stark message: if we don't dramatically increase public funding for agricultural research and development (R&D), U.S. farm productivity will decline in the coming decades—right when we need it most.
The reason is simple. Climate change is already slowing agricultural productivity, and its effects are accelerating. Hotter temperatures, unpredictable weather, and shifting growing conditions are pushing yields downward. At the same time, the innovations that help farmers adapt—new crop varieties, better disease resistance, smarter farming tools—are taking decades to develop.
This creates a dangerous mismatch: Climate impacts are happening fast, but new solutions take years—sometimes generations—to mature.
How much investment is needed? A lot—and it's not unprecedented.
Researchers conclude that avoiding declines in U.S. agricultural productivity by 2050 will require public agricultural R&D spending to increase by an additional $2.2 to $3.8 billion every year, or grow by 5.2% to 7.8% annually.
To put that in perspective, this level of investment would need to match the rapid, ambitious public R&D spending growth seen after both World War I and World War II—the last times the U.S. scaled research investment so aggressively.
This comparison is not made lightly. It signals the historic moment we're in: either we choose to boldly invest in agricultural innovation, or we face long-term productivity losses that ripple across our food system, rural communities, and national food security.
Why This Matters To All Of Us
Agricultural R&D isn't just about helping farmers—it affects food prices, the stability of our supply chains, and our ability to feed a growing population in a warming world. Historically, every major jump in farm productivity has come from decades of publicly funded research. But public agricultural R&D has been stagnant for years, and has even declined in the last decade.
That slowdown is catching up with us. And because the benefits of research take so long to materialize, the decisions we make in the next few years will determine the strength of U.S. agriculture for the next half-century.
The Takeaway
This new analysis makes the stakes unmistakably clear:
Climate change is already harming U.S. agricultural productivity.
Without major increases in public agricultural R&D, those losses will accelerate.
The required investment is massive—but comparable to past moments when the U.S. rose to meet national challenges.
If America wants a resilient, competitive, and sustainable agricultural future, the time to invest is now—with the same boldness that defined the post-war eras of innovation.
Read the full article here: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2411010122
